Andy Burnham became Prime Minister on 20 July 2026. Within two weeks, Chancellor John Healey confirmed the Autumn Budget for Wednesday 28 October. That gives founders 11 weeks to review their position before the biggest tax and spending announcement of the year. Here's what's confirmed, what's being signalled, and what's worth acting on now.
What's Actually Confirmed
It's worth separating fact from speculation clearly — there's a lot of noise around this government and most of it isn't policy yet.
What is confirmed:
- The Budget takes place on Wednesday 28 October 2026. The earliest Budget since 2021.
- Income tax, VAT, and National Insurance rates will not increase for the remainder of this Parliament. Burnham confirmed he will honour Labour's 2024 manifesto pledge on all three.
- VAT will be removed from domestic electricity bills from 1 October 2026. A confirmed cost-of-living measure that doesn't directly affect most businesses but signals the government's direction.
- Business rates reform for pubs and high streets has been signalled, with Burnham indicating a shift in the burden toward warehouses and out-of-town developments.
That's the confirmed picture. Everything else is speculation — including everything in the next section.
What's Being Signalled — But Not Confirmed
The new government has been careful not to make specific tax commitments ahead of the Budget. But Burnham's track record, parliamentary record, and public comments give a reasonable picture of where his instincts lie.
Capital Gains Tax is the area attracting the most attention. Burnham has consistently argued that the UK tax system places too much burden on earned income and too little on investment returns. Closer alignment of CGT rates with income tax rates has been widely discussed by commentators and advisers. No formal proposal has been made — but for founders with embedded gains, significant assets, or exits planned, this is worth monitoring.
The personal allowance is on Burnham's radar. He acknowledged during his campaign that voter frustration about the frozen allowance was "lodged" in his mind, and confirmed it would be reviewed at the Budget. He made no commitment to change it, noting it would be "difficult given the financial circumstances."
A fiscal gap of around £22 billion has been identified by analysts. The Chancellor has framed the Budget around fiscal discipline and meeting existing fiscal rules. The gap, combined with new spending commitments on defence and social care, is expected to require difficult choices. Further tax rises are possible — but what form they take will only become clear on 28 October.
Why the Next 11 Weeks Matter
The period between now and a Budget is historically the most valuable planning window available. The rules in place today may not be the rules in place on 29 October.
That doesn't mean making panic decisions based on speculation. It means using this window to review your position clearly so that if changes are announced, you understand the impact immediately and can act quickly.
For Runway's clients specifically, a few areas are worth looking at now:
- Exits and asset disposals. If you have a sale, a significant share disposal, or another transaction in progress or under consideration, understanding your current CGT position — and what it would look like under various scenarios — is sensible preparation. Acting before a Budget that might change rates is a decision some founders will face; making that decision based on clear numbers rather than headlines is the right approach.
- Remuneration structure. A personal allowance change, if it happens, affects director-shareholders directly. Understanding how your current salary, dividend, and pension structure interacts with various allowance scenarios is worth revisiting.
- IHT and succession planning. BPR changed in April. A Budget could bring further IHT measures. Founders with succession plans based on pre-2026 assumptions should make sure those plans have been reviewed.
- Pension contributions. Pension relief is sometimes targeted in Budgets. If you've been planning to make significant employer pension contributions, doing so before 28 October removes that uncertainty.
What to Watch
The Budget will be delivered from the House of Commons on 28 October. Runway will cover the key announcements and what they mean for founders as soon as the detail is available.
Between now and then, the most useful thing you can do is understand your current position clearly. That means knowing your current tax liabilities, your remuneration structure, your capital position, and your succession plan — so that whatever is announced, you're responding from a position of clarity rather than catching up.
Eleven weeks is a meaningful window. The founders who use it well won't be the ones who predicted the Budget correctly — they'll be the ones who knew their numbers before it happened.
If you'd like to review your tax position ahead of 28 October, speak to a Runway co-founder.
